Policy Monographs, Articles, and Opinion Pieces

“Upsetting the Balance: Why Russia Chose Hamas over Israel,” The Washington Quarterly 47, no. 3 (Fall 2024): 79-102.

“Where’s Wagner Now? One Year after the Mutiny,” PONARS-Eurasia (George Washington University) Policy Memo 903, June 2024.

Potential Russian Uses of Paramilitaries in Eurasia, Center for a New American Security (Washington, DC), December 2023 (co-authored with Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Nicholas Lokker and Kristen Taylor). 

“Whither Wagner? The Consequences of Prigozhin’s Mutiny and Demise,” Survival (International Institute for Strategic Studies) 65, no. 5 (2023): 45-64.

“Russian Foreign Paramilitary Outfits beyond Wagner,” Russian Analytical Digest 303 (Oct. 18, 2023): 12-16.

“Why the Wagner Group Cannot Be Easily Absorbed by the Russian Military—and What That Means for the West,” Russia Matters (Harvard University Kennedy School of Government Belfer Center), Sept. 1, 2023.

"The perplexing aftermath of the Wagner mutiny shows Putin is more vulnerable than ever," The Guardian, Aug. 4, 2023.

“Russia’s Use of the Wagner Group: Definitions, Strategic Objectives, and Accountability,” testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on National Security of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, hearing on “Putin’s Proxies: Examining Russia’s Use of Private Military Companies,” prepared for presentation on September 15, 2022.

“Russian Military and Economic Interests and Influence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Threats, Limits, and U.S. Policy Recommendations,” testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, Migration, and International Economic Policy, hearing on “Russia in the Western Hemisphere: Assessing Putin’s Malign Influence in Latin America and the Caribbean,” prepared for presentation on July 20, 2022.

“Finland’s New Frontier: Will Russia Seek to Disrupt Helsinki’s NATO Bid?” ForeignAffairs.com, May 4, 2022.

“President Putin’s Rationality and Escalation in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 756, March 2022.

"How This Invasion Threatens NATO: Seeing Putin's Gameplan," New York Daily News, Feb. 25, 2022.

Essay in “NATO Expansion in Retrospect,” H-Diplo International Security Studies Forum Policy Roundtable 12-1, Oct. 19, 2020.

“Where’s Wagner? The All-New Exploits of Russia’s ‘Private’ Military Company,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 670, September 2020.

“The GRU, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Russia’s Wagner Group: Malign Russian Actors and Possible U.S. Responses,” testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, Energy, and the Environment of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, hearing on “Exposing and Demanding Accountability for Kremlin Crimes Abroad,” prepared for presentation on July 7, 2020.

“Russia’s Back in Africa: Is the Cold War Returning?” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 4 (Dec. 2019): 155-70.

“Russ-Afrique? Russia, France, and the Central African Republic,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 608, August 2019.

“Into Africa: Prigozhin, Wagner, and the Russian Military,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 561, January 2019.

“Brothers in Arms? Why Trump Should Push Putin to Revive Arms Control,” ForeignAffairs.com, July 13, 2018 (co-authored with Olga Oliker).

“Semi-state Security Actors and Russian Aggression,” Lawfare, July 8, 2018.

“The Puzzle of Russian Behavior in Deir Al-Zour,” War on the Rocks, July 5, 2018.

“Digital Détente: The Case for Cyber Peace with Russia,” The New Republic, Jan./Feb. 2018.

“Explaining Russia’s Schizophrenic Policy toward the United States,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 501, Jan. 2018.

“Ukraine’s Volunteer Militias May Have Saved the Country, but Now They Threaten It,” War on the Rocks, Sept. 14, 2017 (co-authored with Olga Oliker).

"President Trump, Keep in Mind that Russia and the West Think about Negotiations Very, Very Differently," Washington Post Monkey Cage blog, July 25, 2017.

“Rex Tillerson’s Visit to Moscow: A Glass Half Full,” ForeignAffairs.com, Apr. 14, 2017.

“Reducing Tensions between Russia and NATO,” Council Special Report 79, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2017.

Essay in “Russia and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election,” H-Diplo International Security Studies Forum Policy Roundtable 1-7, Mar. 26, 2017.

“Trump and Putin, through a Glass Darkly,” Asia Policy 23 (Jan. 2017): 36-42.

“Putin’s Mission Accomplished? Why Russia Is Taking Troops out of Syria,” ForeignAffairs.com, March 15, 2016 (co-authored with Rajan Menon).

“Putin as Patron in Syria,” Ballots and Bullets Blog (University of Nottingham), Oct. 12, 2015.

“The Security Costs and Benefits of Non-State Militias: The Example of Eastern Ukraine,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 391, Oct. 2015.

“Putin’s Choices: Explaining Russian Foreign Policy and Intervention in Ukraine,” The Washington Quarterly 38, no. 2 (Summer 2015): 189-204.

“Putin's Biggest Mistake,” ForeignAffairs.com, March 1, 2014.

“A New Explanation for Russian Foreign Policy: The Power of Informal Patronage Networks,” PONARS-Eurasia Policy Memo 274, Sept. 2013.

"The Bane of Palestinian Infighting," New York Times International Edition (International Herald Tribune), June 27, 2013.

“Uncertain Loyalty: The Challenges of Cooperating with Militias,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, December 2012, pp. 41-5.

“Patronage vs. Professionalism in New Security Institutions,” PRISM (National Defense University Center for Complex Operations) 2, no. 4 (Sept. 2011): 83-98.

“The Danger of Tribal Militias in Afghanistan: Learning from the British Empire,” Journal of International Affairs (Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs) 63, no. 1 (Fall/Winter 2009): 157-74.

“Central Asia: Military Modernization and the Great Game,” in Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, ed. Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2005).

“Defending against Anarchy: From War to Peacekeeping in Afghanistan,” The Washington Quarterly 26, no. 1 (Winter 2002/3): 35-52.

“Making and Keeping the Peace,” sections 1-6 of A Global Agenda: Issues before the 55th General Assembly of the United Nations, 2000-2001 Edition, ed. John Tessitore and Susan Woolfson.  New York: Rowman & Littlefield, 2000.